AIF Insights No. 26 (2026) | The Illusion of the Algorithm: Precision, Attrition, and the New Global Security Divide

This article argues that artificial intelligence narrows military choices rather than offering a “clean war” ideal, driving conflicts toward attritional fighting while exacerbating global security divides. Focusing on the concept of military AI capability as a conversion problem across technical, industrial, and operational layers, the author illustrates how reliance on private tech infrastructure creates concentration risks and systemic dependencies. The paper demonstrates how AI systems serve as “legitimation tools” for mass target generation, using the illusion of precision to justify indiscriminate civilian destruction, while also exploring how unreliable models—afflicted by concept drift and catastrophic forgetting—increase operational risks. Finally, it highlights the strategic traps facing the Global South, where adopting AI without infrastructure leads to proxy risks, loss of agency, and tactical dependence, ultimately recommending a shift toward focused, politically sound defense partnerships and governed compute access.